3:38 PM EDT Tuesday 27 October 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
- Niagara Falls – Welland – Southern Niagara Region
- St. Catharines – Grimsby – Northern Niagara Region
Moisture laden fall storm with rain and gusty winds tonight through Thursday.
A low pressure area over Louisiana containing moisture from the remnants of hurricane Patricia and the Gulf of Mexico is starting to move northward towards the Great Lakes. This low is expected to intensify into a strong fall storm as it reaches the Great Lakes, bringing a significant rainfall along with strong and gusty winds over the next couple of days.
A large shield of rain associated with this storm is forecast to spread into Southwestern Ontario tonight and reach the Golden Horseshoe area by Wednesday morning. The rain will continue to move steadily into Central and Eastern Ontario through the day on Wednesday. The rain will likely become heavy at times as the low pressure area deepens. Latest indications continue to suggest 25 to 40 mm of rain in most areas. Locally higher amounts of 45 to 55 mm are likely, especially in the Windsor to Toronto and into Kingston corridor and rainfall warnings have been issued. The rainfall warnings will likely be extended into Eastern Ontario as the event draws nearer.
A clap or two of thunder is quite possible over a few locales, along with rainfall approaching Environment Canada’s rainfall warning criterion of 50 mm within 24 hours.
Additionally, strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast to develop early Wednesday over Southwestern Ontario then on Wednesday afternoon over remaining parts of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts to 70 km/h are likely in most areas. Even stronger winds are quite possible near the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, where wind gusts may approach the warning threshold of 90 km/h. Winds will become southwesterly on Thursday as a cold front arrives and strong gusts to 90 km/h are again possible.
These winds may be strong enough to cause some tree damage and local power outages, especially in areas where trees remain in partial to full leaf. Other impacts could be pooling on roads due to debris blocking drains.
The rain and strong winds will end by Friday as the fall storm moves away into Northern Quebec.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at http://www.weather.gc.ca.