NHL Playoffs: Back To The Crystal Ball For Western Conference Picks

By WAYNE REDSHAW

   It’s been a longtime since a Canadian-based team won the Stanley Cup. In fact, the last time a Canadian squad drank bubbly from the Cup was 1993 when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Los Angeles Kings in five games. Coincidently, that was the same year that Gary Bettman became the Commissioner of the National Hockey League.

  Since then the Cup has been owned by American-based teams. Five times, a Canadian team qualified for the finals but finished on the losing side of the ledger. Twice, the Vancouver Canucks made it to the finals losing in seven games both times, first to the New York Rangers in 1994 and then to the Boston Bruins in 2011.

   Calgary Flames made it to the finals in 2004 only to lose to Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games. The others were the Ottawa Senators, who lost in five games in 2007 to the Anaheim Ducks and the Montreal Canadiens who bowed out to Tampa Bay in five games in 2021.

   With the playoffs just underway hockey buffs are wondering can a Canadian team finally end the lengthy Cup drought? There are four Canadian teams who qualified for playoffs — the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference and the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference.

    Of course, before the finals there are three rounds to be played. Here in Part Two are my fearless predictions on the four opening rounds of Western Conference playoffs.

Golden Knights vs Stars.

     The defending Cup champs the Vegas Golden Knights finished in the second wild card spot in the West so they they have drawn the top seed in the Dallas Stars. Last year Vegas advanced to the finals by  disposing of the Stars in six games in the Conference final.

  I feel the Stars are vastly improved over last year so they should dethrone the champions. They have great depth and quality goaltending, especially with Jake Oettinger. Offensively, the Stars are loaded with Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Matt  Duchene, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski who can deliver.

  The Golden Knights were hard hit with injuries this season and it showed on the ice. Captain Mark Stone missed the final 26 games because of a lacerated spleen. He’s skating but whether he’s 100% for this series  is questionable. And the Knights encountered other injury woes with Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo all missing from the lineup during the season.

   Besides the injuries, I am not impressed with the Vegas goaltending duo Logan Thompson and Adin Hill.

Prediction: Stars in five games

Avalanche vs Jets

   The Colorado Avalanche slumped down the homestretch while the Winnipeg Jets finished the regular season in style winning eight in a row. The Jets also won all three games over the Avs  and outscored them 17-4.

  For that reason, I am picking the Jets. However, it won’t be easy. The playoffs are different from the regular season so I won’t be surprised if this series goes the limit.

 The difference maker in the series will be between the pipes and I like the Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck. I am simply not sold on the Colorado goaltending. The Avs are fortunate to have Cale Makar, one of the best all-round blue liners in the league.

  Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen should make it an interesting series. However, the Jets have Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Tyler Toffoli and Josh Morrissey to answer the bell for them.

  This should be an exciting series from start to finish and don’t be surprised if overtime is necessary for a few games.

Prediction:  Jets in seven games.

Kings vs Oilers.

   The first couple months into the regular schedule the Edmonton Oilers were a joke despite having a talented lineup. Fortunately, management stepped in, saw the problem and made a coaching change.

  The Oilers were a completely different team after the change. They started scoring and winning and there’s no reason it can’t continue into the playoffs against the Los Angels Kings. It is the third showdown between the two clubs in the playoffs with the Oilers winning the first two.

   Former Leaf Zach Hyman had a banner year for the the Oilers potting 54 goals. And with Connor McDavid at the controls the Oilers should have no problems putting away the Kings. McDavid also has an excellent supporting cast with the likes of Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and  Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse on the bluline.

   The Kings have some scorers with Trevor Moore (31), Kevin Fiala (29), Adrian Kempe (28) and Ange Kopitar (26). They just don’t have enough depth to match the Oilers.

  Prediction: Oilers in five games.

Predators vs Canucks

     Vancouver Canucks won the Pacific Division for the first time since 2013 and hosted a playoff game Sunday for the first time in nine years. They qualified for the playoffs in 2020 but due to Covid all Western Conference games were played in Edmonton with no fans in attendance.

    This series will feature two quality defencemen with the Canucks’ Quinn Hughes and the Predators’ Roman Josi. Quinn led all defencemen in the NHL with 92 points on 17 goals and 75 assists. Josi ranked third with 85 points which included a league leading 23 goals.

  J.T. miller led the Canucks scoring compiling 103 points on 37 goals and  66 assists. Brock Boeser was the Canucks’ top sniper with 40.

   The Predators earned the first wild card in the west thanks to a 18-game point streak from February 16 to March 28. In that streak they went 16-0-2.

    Filip Forsberg led the Preds offensively with 48 goals and 46 assists for 94 points followed by Josi with 85.

   Goaltending appears to be pretty even with Thatcher Demko likely to go the distance for the Canucks and Juuse Saros for Nashville.

  Prediction: Canucks in seven games.

   (Wayne Redshaw covered the NHL and was named a Life Member of the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association in 1987).

Note To Readers

Wayne Redshaw’s Stanley Cup playoff predictions, Western Conference, scheduled for publication today, is delayed until Monday. You can read the Eastern Conference predictions here on the blog.

Need Seen For Salary Cap In Major League Baseball

By WAYNE REDSHAW

   When are the owners of the 30 Major League Baseball teams going to wake up? MLB is the only major professional sports organization in North America that doesn’t have a salary cap like the National Hockey League or the National Football League.

 Of course, MLB claims they do. They call it CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) or as it is referred to by many as a luxury tax. The  CBT was introduced in 2003.

  It is supposed to take the place of a salary cap. The CBT, so they say, regulates the total sum of money a given team can spend on their roster each season.  A team is penalized if the combined annual average value of their player contracts exceeds that season’s tax threshold. A club is taxed on each dollar above the limit.

   A club over the limit is subject to an increasing tax rate for consecutive years. For the first year, it is 20 percent. Two straight years the rate  increases to 30 percent and for three or more consecutive years the penalty is 50 percent. And if a club dips below for a season, the penalty level is reset to 20 percent the next time they exceed the threshold.

  There is also a surcharge for clubs that exceed  the threshold by $20 million or more. For being over $20 to $39 million the additional surcharge is 12 percent, $40 to $59 million is 42.5 percent  and  $60 million plus is 60 percent.

  Clubs who surpass the season threshold by  $40 million or more shall also have their highest draft selection for the coming season moved back 10 spaces unless it falls in the top six. In that case, that club will have its second highest moved back 10 places.

  Of course with this CBT there are loopholes and some teams, especially the Big Market Teams are taking advantage of it. This past week was a perfect example when the Los Angeles Dodgers announced the signing of 29-year-old free agent superstar Shohel Ohtani to an astronomical 10-year $700  million contract. And the big joke is the Dodgers are only being assessed $2 million per season for the next 10 years against the threshold instead of $70 million. That will reduce the Dodgers’ CBT payment considerably.

  The Dodgers claim it was Ohtani’s idea to defer $680 million until 2034. Then he will receive equal payments of $68 million with no interest per year until 2043.

   Whether it was or not, the Dodgers came out on top as it reduces what they will be shelling out for the CBT. With the  bargain basement deal, the Dodgers can also build around Ohtani by picking up a few more free agents to stack their roster. They are apparently pursuing prized Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

  It should be pointed out deferring is nothing new for the Dodgers. When they signed Freddie Freeman to a six- year $162 million deal, $57 million of the contract was deferred with payments starting in 2028 and ending in 2040. And Mookie Betts 12-year $365 million contract includes $115 million deferral from 2033 to 2044.

   And  the Dodgers aren’t alone. Other big market teams like the New York Yankees, New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies to name just a few have played same game. It’s not only a joke it’s a total farce.

  It would be nice to have a level playing field for all 30 teams but don’t count on it for the foreseeable future. The millions of dollars they are shelling out is like pocket change to them.

(Wayne Redshaw has covered amateur and professional sports for over 60 years. He can be reached at wredshaw@icloud.com).

My Buddy Louie

Louie, a purebred Boxer, loves his skateboard./ Wayne Redshaw photo

By WAYNE REDSHAW

  The first name “Louie” may not be as common as it was but over the years and with my connections in sports I have met a few individuals named “Louie”. A couple have been successful businessmen in Welland while two others were involved in hockey.

 First there was Louie Elia who owned and operated Ideal Fish and Chips on East Main in Welland for years. It was a landmark and his customers came from all over. Louie wasn’t an athlete by any means but he loved to follow the horses, especially when they were racing at Fort Erie. I usually visited him two or three days a week at his establishment as he knew I had access to the early morning scratches and after studying the racing form and the scratches he would give me his picks and money knowing I would likely see a bookie at a nearby bar later in the day and place his bets for him.

  Then there was Louie Pelino, who was a partner in Pelino-Mataya-Molnar Collision, a very successful auto body repair shop. Louie played senior and intermediate hockey locally and with the collision body shop sponsored softball and hockey teams. He was a good supporter of sports in general in Welland.

  Another Louie was Louie Varga, a trainer with the NHL’s Chicago Black Hawks. Varga started out assisting Frankie Christie of Buffalo Bisons of the AHL. Then when an opening came up in Chicago, Christie highly recommended Varga for the job.

I remember when I covered the 1971 Stanley Cup finals between Montreal Canadiens and the Hawks, Louie was on cloud nine and hoping to become the first Wellander to have his name inscribed on the Cup. Unfortunately, that didn’t materialize. The series went the distance — seven games — but the Canadiens won that seventh game in overtime in the Windy City.

  The fourth Louie was Louie  Nistico, who played four years in the now defunct World Hockey Association — three with the Toronto Toros, one with the Birmingham Bulls. He also got to play three games in the NHL for the Colorado Rockies.

  Nistico was a member of Branford Alexanders, who won the Allan Cup, emblematic of the Canadian Senior A championship in the 1977-78 season. The following year the Alexanders moved to Welland and became known as the Welland Sunys, then the Welland Steelers.

  With winning the Allan Cup the previous season as the Alexanders, the Sunys were presented with the opportunity to represent Canada overseas. It was a 16-day goodwill tour of Yugoslavia, Austria and Italy with games played in the three countries. I had the opportunity to accompany the Sunys on that trip and it was quite an experience. That is where I got to know Lou Nistico. He was quite a character, the life of the party.

  Now there’s another Louie. However, this Louie is different than the four mentioned. For starters, he has four legs and barks. Yes, you guessed it — Louie is a dog. But he’s not your ordinary or average pet dog.

   Louie is different in many respects and I think he’s very talented, especially on a skateboard. He is also a real showman. As a neighbour, I’ve watched Louie grow up and progress from a young pup. Now three years old, Louie, a purebred Boxer, is proudly owned by Henry and Leslie Watson of Wainfleet. Henry is a retired Hamilton firefighter and the Watsons moved to their lakeside Wainfleet residence over five years ago.

   There’s a rather steep boat ramp that goes right into Lake Erie on their property and Louie has taken a real fancy to it. He started out by sliding down the ramp in one of Leslie’s big metal bowls. She didn’t give it to Louie, he removed it from one of the lower cupboards and went directly to the ramp, put his front paws inside and started sliding. There were times when he crashed and even went over the wall before reaching the bottom. But Louie was determined. He would bark at the bowl, then pick up the bowl in his mouth and return to the top of the ramp and try it again.

  Leslie decided that the bowl was too noisy on the concrete structure and coupled with Louie’s barking, she would find him a different toy. Furthermore, her supply of mixing bowls was decreasing with Louie taking them to slide down the ramp.

  One day while in the Treasure Hunt in Port Colborne she came across a skateboard and Henry and Leslie decided the board would be better and definitely much quieter as it had wheels. The only question was would Louie take to it?

  That wasn’t a problem as Louie instantly knew what the board was for and how to use it. Two front paws on the board down he goes. Of course, staying on course is sometimes a problem as he still crashes and the odd time goes over the wall. But that doesn’t stop Louie from getting back up and trying it again. And as with the bowl, he retrieves the board and continues his journey or he returns to top of the ramp to begin again. He simply doesn’t  give up.

  Too bad there’s not such competitions for animals, especially dogs. There’s the “Doggie Bowl” that is staged the same day as the Super Bowl every year. It’s been going for years and howling success. In fact, sometimes I would say the “Doggie Bowl” has even been more entertaining  to watch than the actual game itself.

   I doubt if the International Olympic Committee would consider staging a separate Olympics just for animals as they have enough headaches now trying to stage both the winter and summer games once every four years.

   Maybe there is some other organization out there that might be interested in staging an Olympic-style competition for animals. And it could include various events, not just skate boarding. I’m sure there’s a lot animals out there who have hidden talents, just like my buddy Louie.

      Meanwhile, Louie is no doubt a pioneer. He is also content as he has his skateboard  and his own ramp to do his thing.

Editor’s note: The author provided a short video showing Louie in action but unfortunately, it could not be used on the site.

(Wayne Redshaw has covered and written about amateur and professional sports for over 60 years. Now retired, he can be reached at wredshaw@icloud.com).

NHL Playoffs: Round 2 Predictions

Our fearless scribe consults his crystal ball for a look at what may be ahead

By WAYNE REDSHAW

 Is an All-Canadian Stanley Cup final on the horizon this year? The way things are shaping up, it could become a reality in June.

And it is all because a couple of the favourites — the record-setting Boston Bruins and the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche — were knocked out in the opening round.

With both the Bruins and the Avalanche suffering game seven defeats on home ice over the weekend, that enhanced the chances of the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers meeting head on in the finals.

If that were to happen, it would mark the first All-Canadian final since 1989 when the Calgary Flames emerged victorious over the Montreal Canadiens in six games.

  Since 1968 when the National Hockey League opened the floodgates with expansion, the only other year two Canadian-based teams squared off in the Cup finals was 1986 with Montreal topping Calgary in five games.

 Of course for both the Leafs and Oilers to get to the Cup finals, they face a couple hurdles beforehand. In other words, two more rounds before the finals but the path for both is a little easier with the Bruins and the Avalanche no longer in the picture.

  Before I begin predicting the second round, I will briefly recap round one. I finished five-for-eight which isn’t bad looking at my track record over the years. Besides Boston and Colorado, my only other blemish was the Winnipeg Jets.

  So now, here’s my fearless forecast for round two.

WESTERN CONFERENCE  

Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights

  Too bad these two teams have to square off in this round as it would have made a great conference final. But that’s how the cookie crumbles.

  Edmonton took seven of the eight points up for grabs during the regular season but Vegas finished first in the Pacific Division with 111 points, two ahead of the Oilers to earn home ice advantage in this series.

  The Oilers’ big guns — Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — have to be firing on all cylinders for Edmonton to take this series. The supporting cast in the likes of Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard, Nick Bjugstad, Darnell Nurse and Matthias Edholm have to deliver too. Bouchard was a pleasant surprise on the blueline and chipped in with two goals and eight assists in the opening round.

   The key for the Knights is to stay out of the penalty box as the Oilers power play is potent scoring nine times with the man advantage against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round.

    Don’t expect the Golden Knights to just roll over. They have a potent offence too with Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, Brent Howden and Chandler Stephenson providing the spark. I also like the way the Knights defence moves the puck around in their end.

    In goal Vegas went with 30-year-old Laurent Brossoit in the series against Winnipeg Jets and he did an admirable job. The Oilers went with Stuart Skinner, a rookie at 24. He was briefly lifted for Jack Campbell in one game. Both netminders lack playoff experience  but both survived opening round jitters. I give a slight edge here to the Oilers.

 Prediction: The Oilers in seven games.

Seattle Kraken vs Dallas Stars

   I didn’t give the Kraken much of a chance against the defending Cup Champion Avalanche and they shocked me dethroning the champions in seven games. So can the second-year club pull off another upset against the Dallas Stars? Frankly, No! It is not in the cards.

    The Kraken will be on a high note heading into this series. The biggest question is will they have enough fuel in the tank to advance to the third round?

  I just think the Stars have more strengths than the Kraken. It starts between the pipes with Jake Oettinger who stymied the Minnesota Wild in the first round.

   Philipp Grubauer played all seven games for the Kraken and got them to the second round. He was busy that series facing a total 231 shots.

 I don’t feel Seattle has enough depth to advance. They did an excellent job killing penalties in the first round allowing only two power-play goals in 18 chances. They lost their top scorer, Jared McCann, early in the first round and the Kraken survived. McCann’s absence is a big hole to fill for this round.

    Dallas has too much firepower with the likes of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment in the lineup.

  The Stars have better balance in all departments over the Kraken. The Kraken will win one game but two would be considered grand theft.

  Prediction: The Stars in five games.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

 New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes

    The New Jersey Devils are just coming off a tough seven-game series with the New York Rangers. However, they are young and speedy and I think that will make a difference in the end against the Carolina Hurricanes.

   The Devils don’t have home ice advantage as the Canes finished one point ahead of them in the standings in their division. But that doesn’t matter.

   This series features two excellent coaches with Lindy Ruff calling the shots behind the Devils’ bench and Rob Brind’Amour directing the Canes. Look for them to try to out-wit each other in this series.

    Carolina plays a close checking style of game that can be boring at times to watch. New Jersey on the other hand can be free-wheeling. They can also play it tight. Their big assets are youth and speed. I admit the Canes have some speed but it doesn’t match the Devils.

   The Devils’ 22-year-old Swiss goaltender, Amira Schmid, was a pleasant surprise and recorded two shutouts against the New York Rangers to send them packing. I figure he’ll get the starting nod from Ruff over Vivek Vanacek.

  For the Hurricanes it will be interesting to see who gets the starting nod — Frederick Andersen or Anitti Raanta.

   New Jersey has a lot of offence to go with their speed with Jack Hughes leading the charge. Then there’s Tomas Tatar and Nico Hischier among others.

  The Hurricanes can answer back with Sebastian Aho, Paul Stastny, and others.

  I like the Carolina defence a little better with Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brent Pesce and   Brady Skjei providing a sound blueline.

Prediction: Devils in seven games.

   Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs

   This was supposed to be the Toronto Maple Leafs against the Boston Bruins but somewhere along the way, the Leafs got a break. Instead of the potent Bruins they’ll now face the Florida Panthers.

   It will be a much easier path for the Leafs enroute to the conference final.

  One thing the Leafs can’t afford is to take the Panthers  too lightly. Look what happened to Boston.

  I don’t think that will happen. The Leafs have too much depth. It starts between pipes with Ilya Samsonov. The Tampa Bay Lightning outplayed the Leafs in three of the six games but Samsonov robbed them blind. He gave the Leafs that much-needed lift in the opening round that had been missing in years gone by.

   Another key factor was the newcomers Toronto brought in before the trade deadline made a world of difference. Ryan O’Reilly, Jake McCabe, Noel Acciari and Luke Schenn truly provided that missing spark and grit that had been absent in past seasons come playoff time.

   And Toronto’s big boys — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, captain John Tavares and Morgan Reilly — all delivered.

  The Panthers, still on cloud nine after stunning Boston, will have their hands full with the Leafs. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky will have to be extra special to prevent the Leafs from advancing. Even if he stands on his head that won’t be enough.

   The Panthers, coached by Paul Maurice, have some talented players like Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhard,, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Anthony Duclair but they do not stack up against the Leafs for this series.

Prediction: If not a sweep then the Leafs in five.

(Wayne Redshaw covered the NHL for over 40 seasons and was named a Life Member of the Professional Hockey Writer’s Association in 1987.)

Stanley Cup: Veteran Scribe Likes The Avs

By WAYNE REDSHAW

   We’re down to the nitty gritty — the Stanley Cup finals — and it has all the makings of being a classic.

   So far, my crystal ball is functioning not bad. I guess removing all the dust and polishing it has paid dividends.

   To date, I am 10-4 in predictions. I was 6-2 in the first round, 3-1 in round two and 1-1 in round three better known as the Conference Finals. Of my four blemishes three of them came compliments of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have won the Stanley Cup the past two seasons

  In round one, I picked them to lose to the Toronto Maple  Leafs. That didn’t happen. The Lightning prevailed in seven games with clinching 2-1 victory in game seven at Toronto.

   Then in round two against the President Cup recipients — the Florida Panthers — I couldn’t see Lightning advancing any further. But they did with a four game sweep.

  And in the recent Conference Finals, pitted against the New York Rangers, Tampa Bay came through winning in six games after dropping the first two games on the road.

   Now, it’s onto the finals for the third straight year, this time facing the Colorado Avalanche, the Western Conference champions.

   So in being wrong about the Lightning in the first three rounds am I about to pick them to win against the Avalanche? I think this series is a toss up. It should be a dandy and as I said earlier a classic.

   Looking at the Lightning, first off they are well-coached with Jon Cooper at the controls. He seems to push the right buttons just at the right time. He’s cool and collected and never seems to panic behind the bench. He also has Stanley Cup playoff experience compared to Colorado’s Jared Bernard.

 In goal it seems  Andre Vasilevskiy has regained the magic that helped the Lightning to back-to-back Cup conquests the past two seasons. He yielded some softies early on in the playoffs against the Leafs but has been rock solid since. Looking at Colorado, Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francois are a good one-two choice but lack experience.

   On the blueline both teams are pretty even with Cal Makar the leader for the Avs and Victor Hedman for the Lightning. Of course both have strong supporting cast members. Both bluelines are excellent when it comes to shot blocking. That was one of the keys for the Lightning in the past three rounds.

   Upfront, it will be interesting to see if Cooper will get the opportunity the first two games in Colorado to match his ace checking line of Anthony Corelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel against the Avalanches’ top production unit of Nathan MacKinnon (11 goals, seven assists in 14 playoff  games), Gabriel Landeskog (8 and 9) and Valeri Nichushkin (5 and 4). The Lightning have Steven Stamkos  and Nikita Kucherov leading the offence for Tampa. Both have been unbelievable so far. Tampa has also made it to finals the past 10 games without Brayden Point. He’s expected to return. The big question: how healthy is he?

 Home ice I think could be a big factor so the edge goes to the Avs as they start the series at home and have the extra games if it goes seven and it likely will.

  Another factor is special teams on the power play and killing off penalties. Both are excellent in both departments. It all boils down as to who gets the favourable bounces.

   Overall I think this is going to be a whale of a series, a classic. Tampa going for a three-peat, something that hasn’t been done since the NHL introduced the salary cap. Colorado on the other hand has a lot to prove. It will be interesting to see who is hungry enough to get their hands on the Stanley Cup.

   Prediction: As I said this series is a toss-up. I’m going with the Avs in seven. Home ice is a huge factor.

(Wayne Redshaw has covered sports in Niagara for over 50 years, 33 and a half at the Welland Tribune. He was publisher of the FORE! Golfers Only for 12 years and also wrote for many newspapers and magazines in Canada and the United States.)